By John Whitesides -
AN unrelenting sour mood among US voters has steadily eroded support for President Barack Obama’s Democrats, putting the party’s grip on Congress at growing risk two months before the November 2 election. Worries about the economy and plummeting confidence in Obama have Democrats on the defensive in dozens of once-safe races, sparking new predictions of a 1994-style sweep that would restore Republicans to power in the House of Representatives and even the Senate.
“A big wave for Republicans is almost guaranteed in November barring some cataclysmic event,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who on Thursday increased his projected Republican gains in the House to 47 seats — enough to win a majority. “The political climate for Democrats has deteriorated badly over the summer,” Sabato said.
Obama and Democrats got little help on Friday from the latest jobless report, which showed the unemployment rate inching up to 9.6 per cent after employment fell for the third consecutive month. Democrats entered the summer hoping an improving economy would help their political prospects, but the stubbornly high national unemployment rate and fears of a double-dip recession have sparked wide public anxiety.
“The economy is issue No 1 through No 139, and most people remain very pessimistic,” said Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown. The political climate looks worse for Democrats so far than in 1994, two years into Democratic President Bill Clinton’s first term, when Republicans recaptured the House by picking up 52 seats.
This year, Republicans must gain 39 House seats and 10 Senate seats to reclaim majorities in each chamber and slam the brakes on Obama’s legislative agenda, with a switch of power in the House considered increasingly likely and in the Senate a growing possibility.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report is monitoring 120 potentially competitive House races, the biggest field in years, with 102 held by Democrats. In 2006, it monitored 75 races.